Germany will need 260,000 immigrants each year in the next four decades

Germany will need 260,000 immigrants each year in the next four decades

An analysis reveals the urgency of # qualified personnel from abroad to alleviate the demographic crisis suffered by the German country

The German labor market needs, in the medium and long term, over the next 40 years, the reinforcement of no less than 260,000 qualified annual immigrants for the powerful local industry to maintain its current operating levels and the country to maintain its well-being. The demographic crisis due to the aging of the population will inevitably lead to the loss of a workforce of 16 million people, practically one out of every three workers at present, until the year 2060, according to a study published yesterday by the Bertelsmann Foundation.

Those responsible for the analysis emphasize that at the time of carrying it out they have taken into account a slight increase in the birth rate and a prolongation of the real work period of men and women. "Even if men and women work in equal measure and retirement is introduced in Germany at the age of 70, the demand for labor could not be met by the national population", underline the members of the Institute of Professional and Labor Market Research ( IAB) of the Higher School of Coburg, to which the Bertelsmann Foundation commissioned the study.

The research specifies that until 2060 Germany will need to annually receive an average of 146,000 immigrants from third countries and about 114,000 from Member States of the European Union to compensate for the demographic decline of the supply of labor "to bearable limits for the economy". It also highlights that immigration from other EU countries has been reduced significantly in recent years, up to 250,000 people in 2017, and will continue to do so gradually in the future.

Behind this phenomenon is that the other countries of the EU are seen or will be beset by the same problems as Germany, also suffering a decline in their birth rate. The study emphasizes in that sense that the economic power and the quality of life will be equated in the future between 28 and 27 if Great Britain leaves the Union definitively, which will significantly reduce the interest of European citizens to look for work in Germany. .

For this reason, the experts of the IAB estimate that until 2035 the German labor market will annually demand the reinforcement of some 98,000 non-EU immigrants, a number that will increase to 170,000 between 2036 and 2050 and to around 200,000 between that last year and 2060. "It currently reaches Germany has very little skilled labor from third countries, "said Jörg Dräger, member of the management of the Bertelsmann Foundation. He pointed out that currently immigrants often occupy auxiliary jobs and that the hiring of qualified specialists is still insufficient.

«Two losers»
Of 60,000 immigrants from third countries who entered the German labor market in 2017 some 23,000 lacked professional training. "There is much to be done in terms of the qualifications of migrants," say the authors of the study, who warn that the arrival of labor that does not square with vacant jobs "produces two losers": neither companies nor do those interested benefit from this type of immigration.

The analysts also consider that the digitalization of the industry will not lead to a setback, but quite the opposite, to an increase in the demand for labor, but very qualified technicians, industrial teachers and graduates. In any case, the Bertelsmann Foundation believes that immigration must be ordered and directed by the authorities. Also, it celebrates the bill that the federal government presented shortly before Christmas and that still has to be debated and approved by the Bundestag, the federal Parliament.

"Immigration law must be approved urgently," stressed Dräger, who positively considered that it provides facilities for the arrival of middle-level technicians. But he also warned that "migration and integration are a task for society as a whole." The law alone is not enough, said the member of the management of the Bertelesmann Foundation. In his opinion, without a permanent culture of welcome and an attractive offer of integration, it will be impossible to face the lack of specialized labor.